Three of the seven top leagues in Europe have a winner confirmed. Bayer Leverkusen are the German Bundesliga champions, Inter Milan are the Italian Serie A champions, and Paris Saint-Germain remain as the French Ligue 1 champions.
PSV Eindhoven is on the brink of becoming the Dutch Eredivisie champions, which will be decided this weekend. A draw is enough.
Should Barcelona drop points this weekend, Real Madrid will become the Spanish La Liga champions with a win. The same applies in the Portuguese Primeira Liga title race; if Benfica drops points, Benfica will clinch the title with a win.
The Premier League is now a tight race between Arsenal and Manchester City, despite Liverpool still holding a mathematical chance of winning it.
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THE FOOTBALL WATCHLIST
(37 matches): The watchlist is longer than usual this week because the domestic league is coming to an end across Europe. There are battles all over the league table for the remaining points to be taken.
May 3.
🏴 Luton Town vs. Everton (english premier league)
🇩🇪 Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig (german bundesliga)
🇫🇷 Lens vs. Lorient (french ligue 1)
🇵🇹 Moreirense vs. Vizela (portuguese primeira liga)
May 4.
🇪🇸 Real Madrid vs. Cádiz (spanish la liga)
🇪🇸 Girona vs. Barcelona (spanish la liga)
🇪🇸 Mallorca vs. Atlético Madrid (spanish la liga)
🏴 Arsenal vs. Bournemouth (english premier league)
🏴 Burnley vs. Newcastle United (english premier league)
🏴 Sheffield United vs. Nottingham Forest (english premier league)
🏴 Manchester City vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers (english premier league)
🇮🇹 Monza vs. Lazio (italian serie a)
🇮🇹 Sassuolo vs. Inter Milan (italian serie a)
🇩🇪 Borussia Dortmund vs. Augsburg (german bundesliga)
🇩🇪 Stuttgart vs. Bayern Munich (german bundesliga)
🇩🇪 Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach (german bundesliga)
🇩🇪 Wolfsburg vs. Darmstadt (german bundesliga)
🇩🇪 FC Köln vs. Freiburg (german bundesliga)
🇫🇷 Le Havre vs. Strasbourg (french ligue 1)
🇫🇷 Monaco vs. Clermont (french ligue 1)
🇫🇷 Metz vs. Rennes (french ligue 1)
🇫🇷 Brest vs. Nantes (french ligue 1)
🇵🇹 Sporting CP vs. Portimonense (portuguese primeira liga)
🇵🇹 Chaves vs. Porto (portuguese primeira liga)
May 5.
🇪🇸 Sevilla vs. Granada (spanish la liga)
🏴 Chelsea vs. West Ham United (english premier league)
🏴 Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur (english premier league)
🇮🇹 AC Milan vs. Genoa (italian serie a)
🇮🇹 Roma vs. Juventus (italian serie a)
🇩🇪 Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Bayer Leverkusen (german bundesliga)
🇳🇱 PSV Eindhoven vs. Sparta Rotterdam (dutch eredivisie)
🇳🇱 Volendam vs. Ajax (dutch eredivisie)
🇳🇱 AZ Alkmaar vs. Twente (dutch eredivisie)
🇳🇱 Feyenoord vs. PEC Zwolle (dutch eredivisie)
🇵🇹 Braga vs. Casa Pia (portuguese primeira liga)
🇵🇹 Famalicão vs. Benfica (portuguese primeira liga)
May 6.
🇮🇹 Udinese vs. Napoli (italian serie a)
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THE SHOTS TO TAKE THIS WEEKEND
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Friday, May 3, 2024
🇺🇲 Ben Olsen turns 47, 🇭🇳 Noel Valladares turns 47, 🇦🇷 Ezequiel Lavezzi turns 39, 🇳🇬 Alex Iwobi turns 28.
🏴 Luton Town vs. Everton (english premier league)
Luton Town needs the points to aid their relegation battle in the Premier League. They will have home support, but they will be quite desperate for the points.
🇩🇪 Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig (german bundesliga) –
RB Leipzig chases a top four finish in the German Bundesliga. Beating Hoffenheim will at least keep their 5-point cushion on 5th placed Borussia Dortmund.
🇫🇷 Lens vs. Lorient (french ligue 1) –
Lorient’s fight to avoid relegation hinges on a positive result, specifically a win, against Lens. Lorient has suffered defeat in their last five league games, marking a run of seven consecutive league matches without a win, with six losses. If they fail to secure a victory at Lens, they will be staring at a sixth straight defeat and likely relegation.
🇵🇹 Moreirense vs. Vizela (portuguese primeira liga) –
Success is highly unlikely at this point, but this is Vizela’s last chance to save themselves from relegation.
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Saturday, May 4, 2024
🇨🇲 Eric Djemba-Djemba turns 43, 🇧🇷 Fernandinho turns 39, 🇪🇸 Cesc Fàbregas turns 37.
🇪🇸 Real Madrid vs. Cádiz (spanish la liga) – Real Madrid could clinch the league title with a home win over Cadiz, provided Barcelona drops points.
🇪🇸 Girona vs. Barcelona (spanish la liga) – There is a two-point difference between Girona and Barcelona as they vie for a second-place finish in La Liga. This achievement holds greater significance for Girona, as it would mark their best league finish in the top flight of Spanish football. For Barcelona, ending below Real Madrid is painful, but finishing below Girona would be shameful.
🇪🇸 Mallorca vs. Atlético Madrid (spanish la liga) – Mallorca, seeking points to secure a safer position and distance themselves from any threat of relegation, will host Atletico Madrid.
🏴 Arsenal vs. Bournemouth (english premier league) – Arsenal holds a point lead but lacks control of the league title race, as Manchester City has a game in hand that could see them take the lead with wins. Arsenal must maintain pressure on Manchester City, and securing a win against Bournemouth is crucial to achieve this.
🏴 Burnley vs. Newcastle United (english premier league) – With Sheffield United relegated, Burnley is now the prime candidate to face relegation next. However, unlike Sheffield United, Burnley is firmly in contention to avoid the drop. They currently occupy the bottom spot among the remaining teams, but there is only a two-point gap between the three clubs vying for one safety spot in the standings.
🏴 Sheffield United vs. Nottingham Forest (english premier league)- A relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest will face a Sheffield United side that was relegated last round. A win is vital for one team, while the other can afford to take their foot off the pedal. The historical significance of the result is the only factor that will keep Sheffield United engaged in this matchup.
🏴 Manchester City vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers (english premier league) – To maintain the importance of their game in hand, Manchester City must continue their winning streak. They will be playing at home against a Wolves side that emerged as ‘2-1’ victors in the reverse fixture. Wolves are coming off their first league win in seven games, having defeated Luton Town 2-1 in the last round.
🇮🇹 Sassuolo vs. Inter Milan (italian serie a) – Sassuolo has their work cut out for them as they host an Inter Milan side celebrating their 20th league title. Sassuolo has nothing to celebrate, as they are in desperate need of points to climb out of the relegation zone. Interestingly, in the reverse fixture, Sassuolo emerged as 2-1 winners against Inter Milan.
🇩🇪 Borussia Dortmund vs. Augsburg (german bundesliga)-
For a chance to secure a spot in the top four, Borussia Dortmund must secure a home win against Augsburg. The reverse fixture ended in a draw.
🇩🇪 Stuttgart vs. Bayern Munich (german bundesliga) – Stuttgart will close the gap between themselves and Bayern Munich to just one point if they manage to secure a home win. This match could end up deciding second place in the German Bundesliga final standings.
🇩🇪 Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach (german bundesliga)- Mönchengladbach needs the points to aid their push to escape the threat of relegation.
🇩🇪 Wolfsburg vs. Darmstadt (german bundesliga)- They are almost there, but Wolfsburg will seek a home win against relegated Darmstadt to further their own objective of escaping the threat of relegation.
🇩🇪 FC Köln vs. Freiburg (german bundesliga)- Relegation-bound FC Köln have one last chance to conjure a miracle that could alter their destiny. They will be playing at home against Freiburg, who were 2-0 winners in the reverse fixture.
🇫🇷 Le Havre vs. Strasbourg (french ligue 1) – Le Havre is hoping to extend their stay in the top flight for another season. Achieving this will rely on making their home advantage count when they host Strasbourg.
🇫🇷 Monaco vs. Clermont (french ligue 1) – Bottom-table Clermont will hope to secure points in Monaco to aid their efforts to avoid relegation. Monaco, on the other hand, will be seeking a win to solidify their grip on second place and to rebound from the points dropped in their defeat to Lyon in the last round.
🇫🇷 Metz vs. Rennes (french ligue 1) – Metz is looking to avoid relegation and escape the relegation playoff spot. They will be away against Lens, aiming to secure the points needed to achieve this.
🇫🇷 Brest vs. Nantes (french ligue 1)- Nantes are seeking points to escape the threat of relegation, while Brest are aiming to secure points to challenge for the second-best finish in the league.
🇵🇹 Sporting CP vs. Portimonense (portuguese primeira liga) – Sporting CP must secure a win to maintain their advantage in the Primeira Liga title race and move closer to clinching the title. A victory could potentially see them emerge as champions if Benfica drops points.
🇵🇹 Chaves vs. Porto (portuguese primeira liga) – Porto is aiming to secure a third-place finish after falling too far behind the top two teams. With pressure mounting, Porto will be seeking maximum points against Chaves. However, this presents a challenge for Chaves, who are embroiled in a tight relegation battle and desperately seeking points to escape the relegation zone.
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Sunday, May 5, 2024
🇦🇷 Juan Pablo Sorín turns 48, 🇲🇽 Raúl Jiménez turns 33.
🇪🇸 Sevilla vs. Granada (spanish la liga) – Granada is unbeaten in their last three league games, a stark improvement after enduring a streak of five consecutive losses and an overall run of 11 league games without a win, which included 8 defeats. Despite their challenges, Granada will attempt to improve their fortunes in Seville against a Sevilla side eager to bounce back from dropping points in the Seville derby in the last round.
🏴 Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur (english premier league) – Mathematically still in the title race but practically out of contention, Liverpool is eager to bounce back after failing to secure a win in their last two league games. This includes a Merseyside derby defeat to Everton and a draw against West Ham United in the last round. Returning home, Liverpool is determined to return to winning ways, especially after suffering a ‘1-0’ defeat to Crystal Palace in their last home league game.
Liverpool lost ‘2-1’ to Tottenham in the reverse fixture.
🇮🇹 AC Milan vs. Genoa (italian serie a) – AC Milan is striving to secure the best possible finish, aiming for second place in the league. A victory against Genoa would ensure they maintain at least a five-point lead over Juventus.
🇮🇹 Roma vs. Juventus (italian serie a) – Juventus will be in Rome, facing Roma in their next match. Atalanta’s pursuit is putting pressure on Roma’s position in 5th place. Up next for Roma is a home match against Juventus, who have been involved in draws in each of their last three games. In their previous encounter, Juventus secured a 1-0 win, but the last time Roma hosted Juventus, they emerged as 1-0 winners.
🇩🇪 Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Bayer Leverkusen (german bundesliga)- Bayer Leverkusen is now focusing on additional objectives after winning the German Bundesliga unbeaten. Their current goal is to navigate through the next three rounds of the season without a defeat. This quest begins with an away match against Eintracht Frankfurt, whom they defeated 3-0 in the reverse fixture. However, the last time Leverkusen visited Frankfurt, they suffered a 5-1 defeat.
🇳🇱 PSV Eindhoven vs. Sparta Rotterdam (dutch eredivisie) – PSV Eindhoven is a draw from becoming league champions. All they need to do is avoid a home defeat against a Sparta Rotterdam side that they beat 4-0 in the reverse fixture.
🇳🇱 Volendam vs. Ajax (dutch eredivisie) – Ajax have had a terrible season by their standard, and will keep pushing for points to have the best possible finish their season can give. This is bad news for a Volendam side that is staring at relegation.
🇵🇹 Famalicão vs. Benfica (portuguese primeira liga) – To keep pressure on Sporting CP and extend the title race down to the wire, Benfica has to come out with an away win against Famalicao.
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Monday, May 6, 2024
🏴 Graeme Souness turns 71, 🇧🇷 Dani Alves turns 41, 🇧🇪 Dries Mertens turns 37, 🇭🇷 Mateo Kovačić turns 30
🇮🇹 Udinese vs. Napoli (italian serie a) – For Udinese, it will be valuable points to help their fight against relegation.
For Napoli, it is an attempt not to finish is the worst position among the defending champions in the top seven leagues in Europe.
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THE TITLE RACE IN THE TOP 7 LEAGUES:
🇮🇹 Serie A: Inter Milan with a 19-point lead (Title decided)
🇩🇪 Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen with a 12-point lead (Title decided)
🇫🇷 Ligue 1: Paris Saint-Germain with a 12-point lead (Title decided)
🇪🇸 La Liga: Real Madrid with a 11-point lead.
🇳🇱 Eredivisie: PSV Eindhoven with a 9-point lead.
🇵🇹 Primeira Liga: Sporting CP with a 5-point lead.
🏴 Premier League: Arsenal holds a 1-point lead but has played one more game than second-place Manchester City.
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Five of the seven top leagues in Europe have already had a team confirm their relegation. Sheffield United in the Premier League, Darmstadt in the German Bundesliga, Almería in the Spanish La Liga, Salernitana in the Italian Serie A, and Vitesse in the Dutch Eredivisie.
Before the rules of classification can be used to determine ranking, there is a point limit that clubs in relegation battles must hit. Ideally, clubs should aim for at least a point above the minimum.
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🏴 PREMIER LEAGUE 🔴 RELEGATION AVOIDANCE RACE
At least two of the three promoted clubs are going down after one year up. It could possibly be all three going down. As things stand, at least 34 points are needed to avoid relegation.
Nottingham Forest (35) – 26 points
Luton Town (35) – 25 points
Burnley (35) – 24 points
Sheffield United (35) – 16 points
May 3.: LUTON TOWN vs. Everton
May 4.: BURNLEY vs. Newcastle United
May 4.: Sheffield United vs. NOTTINGHAM FOREST
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🇪🇸 LA LIGA 🔴 RELEGATION AVOIDANCE RACE
Almería is already relegated, leaving a minimum of 39 points needed to avoid relegation from La Liga as things stand. Granada will likely be the next in line to join Almería, while Cádiz will try to remain hopeful even though their chances are bleak.
Mallorca (33) – 32 points
Celta Vigo (33) – 31 points
Cádiz (33) – 26 points
Granada (33) – 21 points
Almería (33) – 14 points
May 4.: Real Madrid vs. CÁDIZ (spanish la liga)
May 4.: MALLORCA vs. Atlético Madrid (spanish la liga)
May 5.: CELTA VIGO vs. Villarreal (spanish la liga)
May 5.: Sevilla vs. GRANADA (spanish la liga)
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🇮🇹 SERIE A 🔴 RELEGATION AVOIDANCE RACE
Salernitana bowed out of the relegation battle in the Italian Serie A, leaving two more slots to be filled before the end of the season. At least 41 points are needed for safety as things stand in the Serie A relegation avoidance race.
Lecce (34) – 36 points
Cagliari (34) – 32 points
Hellas Verona (34) – 31 points
Frosinone (34) – 31 points
Empoli (34) – 31 points
Udinese (34) – 29 points
Sassuolo (34) – 26 points
Salernitana (34) – 15 points
May 4.: SASSUOLO vs. Inter Milan
May 5.: CAGLIARI vs. LECCE
May 5.: EMPOLI vs. FROSINONE
May 5.: HELLAS VERONA vs. Fiorentina
May 6.: UDINESE vs. Napoli
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🇩🇪 BUNDESLIGA 🔴 RELEGATION AVOIDANCE RACE
As things stand in the German Bundesliga, 37 points is the minimum to escape relegation playoffs, and 32 points is the minimum to avoid direct relegation. Darmstadt has already been eliminated.
Wolfsburg (31) – 34 points
Borussia Mönchengladbach (31) – 32 points
Union Berlin (31) – 30 points
Bochum (31) – 30 points
Mainz (31) – 28 points
FC Köln (31) – 23 points
Darmstadt (31) – 17 points
May 4.: Werder Bremen vs. BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH
May 4.: WOLFSBURG vs. Darmstadt
May 4.: FC KÖLN vs. Freiburg
May 5.: Union Berlin vs. BOCHUM
May 5.: Heidenheim vs. MAINZ
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🇫🇷 LIGUE 1 🔴 RELEGATION AVOIDANCE RACE
There is a maximum of 9 points left for each of the French Ligue 1 clubs looking to avoid relegation. At least 35 points are needed for safety as things stand in Ligue 1, and at least 38 points will be needed to avoid the relegation playoff round.
Nantes (31) – 32 points
Le Havre (31) – 29 points
Metz (31) – 29 points
Lorient (31) – 26 points
Clermont (31) – 25 points
May 3.: Lens vs. LORIENT
May 4.: LE HAVRE vs. Strasbourg
May 4.: Monaco vs. CLERMONT
May 4.: METZ vs. Rennes
May 4.: Brest vs. NANTES
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🇳🇱 EREDIVISIE 🔴 RELEGATION AVOIDANCE RACE
At least 28 points are needed for safety as things stand in the Dutch Eredivisie, with at least 34 points needed to skip the relegation playoff round. RKC Waalwijk and Excelsior are aiming to avoid playing in the relegation playoff round, while Volendam will need a miracle to avoid dropping down a division.
Excelsior (31) – 26 points
RKC Waalwijk (31) – 25 points
Volendam (31) – 19 points
Vitesse (31) – 2 points
May 5.: Heracles Almelo vs. RKC WAALWIJK
May 5.: VOLENDAM vs. Ajax
May 6.: EXCELSIOR vs. NEC Nijmegen
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🇵🇹 PRIMEIRA LIGA 🔴 RELEGATION AVOIDANCE RACE
Vizela and Chaves are on the brink of relegation this weekend. At least 37 points are needed to avoid the relegation playoff spot in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, while a minimum of 32 points is needed to avoid relegation.
Boavista (31) – 30 points
Estrela da Amadora (31) – 29 points
Portimonense (31) – 28 points
Chaves (31) – 23 points
Vizela (31) – 22 points
May 3.: Moreirense vs. VIZELA
May 4.: Sporting CP vs. PORTIMONENSE
May 4.: CHAVES vs. Porto
May 4.: BOAVISTA vs. Gil Vicente
May 5.: Arouca vs. ESTRELA DA AMADORA
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THE LEADING 10 CLUBS FROM OUR INDEX RANKING.
🇮🇹 Inter Milan has the most league wins (28) and has accumulated 89 points, the highest among the clubs in Europe’s top leagues. However, when it comes to points per game, PSV Eindhoven leads the way, averaging 2.71 points, with the highest win rate at 0.87.
🇳🇱 PSV Eindhoven’s 103 goals in the Eredivisie are the highest in Europe, scoring at a rate of 3.32 goals per game (the highest). They’ve also conceded the fewest goals (17), helping them go through the season dropping only 9 points (the fewest).
🇳🇱 Vitesse were deducted eighteen points for breaking the license requirements set by the Royal Dutch Football Association. Without the deduction, Vitesse would’ve been on 20 points (still in the relegation zone). Point deduction has left them with only 10% of what their performance this season would’ve earned them (2). This also means Vitesse have dropped the most league points in Europe (91), picking up an average of 0.06 points per game.
🇪🇸 Cádiz’s 23 league goals are the fewest. 🇪🇸 Almería’s one league win is the lowest, with a 3% win rate.
71% of their league games ended in defeat for 🏴 Sheffield United. They are conceding at a rate of 2.77 goals per game, having conceded 97 goals so far and suffered 25 league defeats as a result. They are at the top of the list in all those departments.
🇩🇪 Bayer Leverkusen is the only club unbeaten in Europe’s top 7 leagues.
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A SPOTLIGHT ON AN ELEVATED AMBITION:
The gap between Benfica and the top spot stands at 5 points after Sporting CP dropped a pair of points in their 2-2 draw at Porto. Sporting CP has only dropped 12 points in 31 games, so it’s unlikely they will drop 5 points in 3 games. However, their draw with Porto in the last round has given Benfica a glimmer of hope to challenge for the title again in the final stages of the Primeira Liga title race.
It will be intriguing to see how the week concludes. Sporting CP will host Portimonense on Saturday, while Benfica will play an away game on Sunday against Famalicao.
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CLASH OF THE DESPERATE:
These clubs at the bottom end of the league table face each other in crucial matches for valuable points.
May 4.
🏴 Sheffield United vs. Nottingham Forest (english premier league)
When a relieved Sheffield United host a desperate Nottingham Forest, the dynamics could lead to an intriguing match. Sheffield United, having already confirmed their relegation, might approach the game with less pressure, potentially allowing them to play more freely and expressively. On the other hand, Nottingham Forest, fighting to escape relegation, will likely bring a sense of urgency and determination to secure valuable points. The match could be characterized by contrasting styles and motivations, with Sheffield United possibly taking more risks while Nottingham Forest focuses on a disciplined defensive approach and capitalizing on counter-attacks. Overall, it sets the stage for an engaging encounter with unpredictable outcomes.
It’s unsurprising that both teams are entering the game off the back of defeats in the last round. Nottingham Forest lost 2-0 at home to Manchester City, a match where they could have altered the outcome if they had been more clinical in front of goal. Despite scoring an early goal in the opening five minutes, Sheffield United couldn’t avoid a 5-1 defeat against Newcastle United.
